193 

FXUS63 KABR 010511 AAC

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

1111 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...

 

- Temperatures warming back up to above normal values again next 

  week. Warmest Wednesday/Thursday at 15 to 25 degree above normal

  (Highs: mid 50s to mid 60s).



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 749 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Flurries are persistent across much of the eastern CWA and had

earlier inserted "likely flurries" through at least 06Z and will

take another look at possible extensions at that time. Little to 

no additional accumulations expected through the night. Increased 

sky cover up through 06Z as stratus deck remains in place. Models 

suggest a slow breaking up of stratus overnight, but not highly 

confident in this, and to what extent. If clouds hang in most of 

the night, forecast lows are likely too cold and may have to 

adjust readings upwards a few degrees.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Band of snow has cycled, nearly dissipating before suddenly being

resurrected. Getting some big flakes so another 1/2 inch 

potential is not out of the question. Expect this brief blip in 

snowfall rates will reverse course and continue on the downwards 

trend following most CAM guidance for the afternoon. 



1036-38mb high pressure over the ND/MN Canadian border area this 

evening will drift east southeast into the Western Lakes region. 

This keeps us on the periphery, with a weak gradient. Clearing and 

fresh snow will allow for ideal radiational conditions for the far 

northeast, though elsewhere its less certain whether the moisture 

will go anywhere.  



For Sunday night through mid day Monday, with the high well to the 

east, look for southerly return flow. Gradient is only about 8-10 mb 

across the state. NBM temperatures increase to above the freezing 

mark across the CWA at 18Z, so will begin to see modification of the 

existing snow cover. Peak gradient is about 12mb by Monday 

afternoon, enough where there would be some concern for near ground 

blowing/drifting but with temperatures above freezing should not be 

impactful. Could be a window in the overnight hours with 

temperatures dropping to where a re-freeze could impact travel, but 

by then we have increased clouds with a weak system. This is the 

northern wave in a split flow regime with a stronger vort moving 

into the Central Plains. As such, BUFKIT profiles depict a classic 

mid level saturation/weak ascent regime over a warm and dry subcloud 

layer, where by the time you saturate the lift has moved on. The end 

result is typically just some light rain showers with ground 

temperatures close to the freezing mark. 



Mid week should be dry with a weak surface pressure pattern. There 

will be a plume of mild air that we've already addressed for early 

Monday. 850mb temperature comparison shows a range of about 3-6C, 

but its uncertain how well we'll do with the recent snow cover. That 

mild air does't really go anywhere during the work week. Warmest 

readings are expected ahead of the next system for the latter half 

of the work week. Should be noted that there is quite a bit of 

spread (in excess of 10F) in NBM 25th - 75th percentile ranges 

during the week, so still some low confidence on how warm we'll get.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



MVFR CIGs will affect the region overnight, but forecast shows a 

trend to VFR by Sunday morning. There is some uncertainty on the 

timing of this, but will continue to monitor and make changes as 

needed. 



&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



UPDATE...TMT

DISCUSSION...07

AVIATION...20