955 FXUS63 KABR 281857 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Band of snow should continue to weaken and shift southeast through the afternoon. - Temperatures warming back up to above normal values again next week. Warmest Wednesday/Thursday at 15 to 25 degree above normal (Highs: mid 50s to mid 60s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Band of has cycled, nearly dissipating before suddenly being resurrected. Getting some big flakes so another 1/2 inch potential is not out of the question. Expect this brief blip in snowfall rates will reverse course and continue on the downwards trend following most CAM guidance for the afternoon. 1036-38mb high pressure over the ND/MN Canadian border area this evening will drift east southeast into the Western Lakes region. This keeps us on the periphery, with a weak gradient. Clearing and fresh snow will allow for ideal radiational conditions for the far northeast, though elsewhere its less certain whether the moisture will go anywhere. For Sunday night through mid day Monday, with the high well to the east, look for southerly return flow. Gradient is only about 8-10 mb across the state. NBM temperatures increase to above the freezing mark across the CWA at 18Z, so will begin to see modification of the existing snow cover. Peak gradient is about 12mb by Monday afternoon, enough where there would be some concern for near ground blowing/drifting but with temperatures above freezing should not be impactful. Could be a window in the overnight hours with temperatures dropping to where a re-freeze could impact travel, but by then we have increased clouds with a weak system. This is the northern wave in a split flow regime with a stronger vort moving into the Central Plains. As such, BUFKIT profiles depict a classic mid level saturation/weak ascent regime over a warm and dry subcloud layer, where by the time you saturate the lift has moved on. The end result is typically just some light rain showers with ground temperatures close to the freezing mark. Mid week should be dry with a weak surface pressure pattern. There will be a plume of mild air that we've already addressed for early Monday. 850mb temperature comparison shows a range of about 3-6C, but its uncertain how well we'll do with the recent snow cover. That mild air does't really go anywhere during the work week. Warmest readings are expected ahead of the next system for the latter half of the work week. Should be noted that there is quite a bit of spread (in excess of 10F) in NBM 25th - 75th percentile ranges during the week, so still some low confidence on how warm we'll get. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions for all terminals with a now weakened band of snow near KABR/KATY that will fluctuate in intensity with an overall downward trend. Gradually, VFR conditions will set in, with a shift from northeast winds to southerly for Sunday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ006- 007-011-018>023. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...07