146 FXUS63 KABR 280511 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1111 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Band of snow over northern SD and west central MN late tonight through Saturday. Generally 2 to 4 inches expected, with localized amounts closer to 5 possible. Winds/low visibility not a big factor with this system. - After a cooldown this weekend, temperatures warming back up to above normal values again next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Some of the latest short-term rapid update model guidance suggests that it will be several more hours before enough concentrated forcing/lift occurs to adequately saturate down the column and start it snowing over the western/northwestern CWA. Also closely watching the extent of low level dry air advection that is happening across eastern North Dakota down into northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota, where the majority of snow accumulation is currently being forecast. For now, no changes are planned to the tonight period forecast. If the model-derived qpf is halfway right, a solid 2 to 4 inches seems feasible, with locally higher amounts expected (it's a banded snow event). And the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau could end up seeing some of that locally higher amount coverage given the wind blowing out of the northeast, which is an upslope flow direction onto the Coteau. UPDATE Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Despite breezy (gusts 20-25mph) conditions continuing, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 6 PM CST, as temperatures cool and relative humidity values recover. See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Observations across the far southwest CWA early this afternoon are showing relative humidity values already between 20 and 25 percent across Lyman/Jones counties as winds generally gust between 25 and 35 mph. Went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning across the southern CWA to match UNR/FSD, in anticipation of humidity values dropping a bit more closer to 20 percent over the next few hours. Main issue in the shorter term forecast period is the band of snow moving east-southeast across the northern CWA late tonight into Saturday. Latest round of models have shifted things northward compared to 24 hours ago, now highlighting a band of highest accumulations (2 to 4 inches, perhaps 5?) along Hwy 12 and over into western MN. Went ahead and collaborated a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern CWA late tonight through Saturday afternoon. Snow accumulations will drop off drastically further south in the CWA, to where Pierre may not pick up anything at all with this system. Will have to monitor for subtle shifts north or south in the main snowband and adjust the forecast/headlines accordingly. Winds still not expected to be much of an issue with this event, with speeds generally only gusting to around 25 mph. Don't anticipate major impacts with blowing snow and low visibility. Next week still shows a warming trend once again, after our cooldown this weekend. Highs showing up in the 40s and 50s again, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Models do try to show a couple systems impacting the central/northern plains during the week, but inherited PoPs only in the 20 to 30 percent range at this time until better agreement is reached. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG At KMBG/KABR/KATY tonight, light to moderate snow will move across northern SD over into northeast South Dakota, with MVFR/IFR VSBY and VFR/MVFR cigs possible/likely. KPIR is currently forecast to remain free of any precipitation or sub-VFR conditions. By mid-day Saturday, the snow should be ending at KMBG, ending at KABR/KATY later Saturday afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Saturday for SDZ006>008-011-020-021-023. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for SDZ004-005- 010. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Saturday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...20