028 FXUS63 KABR 310828 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 228 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 25% chance for snow flurries and light freezing drizzle over northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota this morning. Accumulations are expected to be light, though roads may have some slick spots. -As a cold front moves through northeastern and central South Dakota today, a line of patchy fog will develop and follow it. This will cause patchy areas of lower visibilities into the afternoon before the fog dissipates. - Over south central South Dakota, temperatures Sunday through Wednesday of next week will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 227 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 As of 08z, there is a layer of stratus aloft over northeastern SD that model soundings show have a fair bit of dry air on top of. At the same time, a line of precipitation is moving to the southeast over ND into MN. This line of precipitation is forecast to mostly be to the east of northeastern SD and west central MN, however, it could skirt over parts of that area during the morning. There it a bit of lower confidence in the timing that the precipitation will be reaching the surface due to the layer of dry air aloft and how fast the precipitation will saturate it. Additionally, with some warm air aloft, there could be a bit of freezing drizzle mix in with light snow flurries when it does start to reach the surface. The snow flurries and light freezing drizzle could last through the morning and should be done by the afternoon. The QPF of this line is very light and should not cause any snow or freezing drizzle to accumulate in far northeastern SD and west central MN, though some surfaces could develop slick spots. Around the same time the precipitation is moving over northeastern SD, a cold front will also be pushing into the area. This front will move to the southwest though the morning and afternoon, bringing in slightly stronger winds behind it. The winds gusts have a low chance of getting up to 25-30mph especially in areas with snow flurries, so blowing and drifting snow should be at a minimum. Over western and central SD, a surface low pressure clipper system will be moving in during the morning as well. This will bring warm, dry air into the central and south central SD. The cold front will interact with the warm air and likely cause a line of patchy fog to develop and follow the the cold front through northeastern and central SD, reducing visibilities slightly at times. Once the line of fog interacts with the much drier air during the afternoon, it will start to dissipate. South central SD will see the warmest temperatures this afternoon, getting into the 30s to lower 40s. North central and northeastern SD and west central MN will see the warmest temperatures during the morning and cool through the day. Lows tonight will be in the teens west of the Missouri River and in the single digits to the east, with areas east of the James River seeing temperatures in the negative single digits. Tonight into early Thursday morning, a high surface pressure will be moving south from Manitoba over northeastern SD. This high pressure is forecast to keep precipitation of central and northeastern SD Thursday. However, there is an area of precipitation that the models have trailing behind the high pressure as it moves out during the afternoon and evening. The models keep the precipitation to the east of the area at this time, though there could be some light snow flurries that glance far northeastern SD and west central MN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 227 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Mainly dry conditions look to persist through the rest of the forecast. We'll start out at 00Z Friday with a surface trough to our south extending from low pressure stretching from MT through WY and eastern CO and western NE/KS. A weak surface trough will move across SD/NE Sunday, with mainly dry conditions continuing. The highest changes for precipitation look to stay mainly to our north and northeast Saturday morning, Sunday night into Monday morning, and again Tuesday morning. At 500mb the 500mb ridge remains to our west with northwesterly flow over our area. The northwesterly flow will flatten slightly as we move through the day Friday, in response to the open wave/trough over CA at 00Z Friday moving across CO Friday afternoon and central to southern Plains Friday evening. The 500mb ridge to our west will build across the Plains this weekend as a low digs off the west coast. Just how high amplitude it can get is still uncertain, helping to keep the large spread in 25th-75th NBM temperature percentiles of 10 degrees through the long term period. Given the current forecast running closer to the 30-40th percentile temperature wise, there is room for temperatures to change significantly still. We'll be watching early next week to see when the off shore 500mb low pushes over the west coast. For now the overall result is nearly similar high and low temperatures for Sunday through Wednesday. Highs are currently forecast to be in the upper 20s over far northeastern SD/west central MN, in the 30s over much of the area, and in the 40s across south central SD. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Latest guidance has tanked cigs into LIFR at KMBG/KATY/KABR as a backdoor front swings through Wed. This means cigs will fall from northeast to southwest. Clearing is expected behind the front. Flurries may accompany the lower stratus as well. For tonight, expect a mix of VFR and MVFR cigs. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...06 AVIATION...20