402 FXUS63 KABR 300855 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 255 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Downslope winds of 25 to 35 mph through the afternoon may produce drifting snow along the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills and over the Leola Hills. At this time, the snow is not expected to be lofted high enough to reduce visibilities. -There is a 20% chance for light snow or freezing rain over west central MN and far northeastern SD this morning. Little to no accumulation is expected. - There is a 30% of snow Wednesday morning over northeast SD and west central MN. Snow accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 254 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 A clipper is moving into and through MN today and precipitation will move along with it. Most of this precipitation is expected to be to the east of the area, though some of it might glance far northeastern SD and west central MN. As of 9Z, this precipitation is moving through ND and into northern and northeastern SD, though because of a dry layer aloft, the precipitation is having a hard time making it to the ground. The dry layer is forecast to warm slightly above freezing into the morning and for a few hours, which could cause the precipitation that falls into it to melt. The big question is if this melted precipitation will be able to make it through the dry layer and to the surface or if it will evaporate and the surface stays dry. If it does make it to the surface, the precipitation could be light freezing drizzle, wintry mix, or snow for a little bit in the morning. QPF amounts are low with this event, so very little to no accumulation is expected, though there could be some localized areas of slick spots in far northeastern SD and west central MN. A bigger concern for today is for stronger winds to occur. A weak downsloping wind event along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau will continue though the morning and into the afternoon, with a 30- 50% chance for winds to gust up to and over 30 mph during the afternoon. There is also a 40-60% chance for gusts up to and over 30mph over the Leola Hills and to the south for a couple of counties, with the Leola Hills seeing the highest chances for the strong wind gusts. With the fresh snow on the ground, these wind gusts have the ability to cause some drifting/blowing snow over these areas. The sustained winds are not strong enough for a big concern for reduced visibilities from blowing snow and are more of a concern for drifting snow, though there could still be some patchy blowing snow at times. Another clipper will be moving into western/central SD overnight into early Wednesday morning that will push warm air into central SD. At the same time, a cold front attached to this clipper will be pushing cold air into northeastern SD. Along the cold front, a narrow area of frontogenesis will be moving in, which will help to create a band of snow. Most of the models have consistently been forecasting the band of snow over northeastern SD late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, given the nature of banded snow events and where the thin band of frontogenesis sets up, there is lower confidence in location as it could end up further to the southwest or northeast. Snowfall accumulations continue to be fairly light in the models, with the ensemble 25th-75th percentiles keeping snowfall amounts light (0-1 inch). Winds and gusts at this time are forecast to be light enough to not cause any drifting/blowing snow concerns. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 By 00Z Thursday 1030mb high pressure over Manitoba will slide along the ND/MN border by 06Z Thursday and over western MN overnight through Thursday morning. A persistent surface trough will reside over WY into southwestern SD and remain to our west as yet another area of high pressure builds a ridge across the eastern Dakotas and MN Thursday night through the day Friday. The area of high pressure moving across MN Saturday will allow for some stronger warm air advection across our area, with temperatures rising back into the mid 20s and 30s. 40s will return to south central SD. The overall spread in the temperature forecast remains large (around a 10 degree spread in the 25th to 75th percentiles) from Saturday on, leading to lower confidence in specific values. Mainly dry weather will continue for the rest of the forecast period. However, we will need to monitor changes for the end of the weekend as a couple areas of low pressure shift across the Northern Plains and southern Canada. At this point is still looks like a majority of the banded looking precipitation will stay to our north or northeast. Will continue a dry forecast, but light precipitation is not completely out of the question. High pressure looks to build in again for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. MVFR cigs will move into KATY in the afternoon then fall to IFR in the evening ahead of a passing clipper system. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...06 AVIATION...20