419 FXUS65 KABQ 292325 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 525 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 511 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth through at least Tuesday. - Dry storms and evaporating showers may produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts in central and northern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Isolated strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A troughing pattern remains in place over the western CONUS with two waves embedded within the broader troughing. One is currently over Montana and lifting off to the northeast into the Canadian Prairie. The base of this trough swung through northeast NM overnight and is still aiding in the production of wind gusts between 30 and 45 mph across the northeast quarter of the state. The other trough is over central CA. This one will continue venture into the Mojave desert of northern AZ and southern NV today into tonight. As it approaches New from the west, it will allow for veering flow across New Mexico, drawing moisture north and westward. Furthermore, models have been showing an MCS developing over old Mexico tonight, with a robust cold pool pushing northward into the eastern plains by the early morning hours. This outflow boundary will push northward into the morning, creating a period of gusty south winds and surging dewpoints in its wake. An area of light stratiform precip. may accompany this area, which would have a stabilizing effect and impact the afternoon's convective potential for areas south of I-40. Convection could develop along the western fringes of this moisture surge as far west as the Jemez mountains Tuesday afternoon. PWATs along the middle and upper RGV and the northern mtns are right near climatological normals, but most of the moisture will be in the mid- levels, with very dry conditions at the surface (dewpoint depressions of 40 to 55 F). As a result, there will be ample DCAPE to generate very strong outflow wind gusts. Most areas will not receive measurable precipitation, but the strong winds could impact outdoor events and blow around unsecured objects. The dryline will setup somewhere just east of the central mountain chain on Wednesday, with scattered storms focusing in the eastern plains along and just east of this boundary. There will be slightly more vertical wind shear on Wednesday (20 to 30 knots) which should be sufficient for more organized storms and a greater resultant severe threat. Across western NM, it will be drier on Wednesday in the wake of a shortwave passage. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Weak troughing will persist over the western CONUS late week, with ridging over the eastern US. It will be dry and hot in most areas, with a low chance of an isolated storm or two over the Sacramento mountains. Models are still showing an amplification of a ridge over the southern Rockies this weekend, slowly drawing moisture into the Desert Southwest. Mostly dry conditions will continue into Saturday, with slightly higher rain chances early next week as deeper moisture makes its way northward. All ensemble systems are showing above normal PWATs over New Mexico early to mid-next week, suggesting at least isolated storms, with higher chances across the east. Furthermore, with the ridge moving overhead, winds will trend down significantly, reducing the threat of rapid fire spread. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are slowly developing over southeastern New Mexico early this evening. These will produce lightning, gusty downburst winds, and small areas of rain through mid evening before dying off. The prevailing gusty surface winds will also subside after dark this evening, only to redevelop Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will increase over eastern New Mexico with faint increases in central areas of the state Tuesday, leading to scattered strong storm in the plains (KSXU, KTCC, KCVN, KROW) where hail, downbursts, and heavier downpours will develop. Farther west, a few high-based virga (evaporating rainfall) showers will develop Tuesday afternoon between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain (KSKX-KSAF-KABQ-KONM) where little rain will be observed, but very abrupt and gusty winds will develop underneath. Hot temperatures will also prevail with high density altitude readings that will imply poor aircraft performance for some. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Strong southwest breezes prevail across the state today, with near critical humidities in most areas. A couple of fires are burning hot, but overall fire activity remains low in most areas considering how many starts there have been over the past week. An MCS over Mexico will push moisture northward into the eastern plains tonight into Tuesday morning, which will help to support the development of isolated to scattered storms. Dry storms may develop along the fringes of this moisture (middle Rio Grande Valley and northern mountains) given the high dewpoint depressions at the surface (40 to 50F) and considering moisture will generally be confined to the 700-500 mb layer. There will be ample DCAPE for the generation of very strong and erratic outflow wind gusts, which could impact fire operations for a brief period of time. The influx of moisture will allow for better humidity recoveries Tuesday night across the eastern half of the state while the drying trend continues across the west. The Fire Weather Watch remains in place for Tuesday, but confidence in critical conditions is decreasing. Humidities have trended higher across the northeast and winds have trended lower across the west so the current forecast is generally calling for widespread near to locally critical fire weather. Drier air enters from the west on Wednesday, resulting in lower afternoon humidities and several hours of single digit relative humidity in northwest NM. The end of the week will remain dry and hot, although winds will trend weaker late week, mitigating the threat of rapid fire spread. Low storm chances will favor the Sacramento mountains late week into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 55 90 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 85 42 86 / 0 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 54 84 52 85 / 0 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 48 84 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 51 88 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 53 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 61 86 59 87 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 56 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 49 88 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 44 78 43 80 / 0 20 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 84 59 84 / 0 10 20 0 Pecos........................... 56 85 53 85 / 0 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 82 52 82 / 0 5 20 0 Red River....................... 45 73 44 73 / 0 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 78 41 78 / 0 5 10 0 Taos............................ 50 85 49 84 / 0 5 10 0 Mora............................ 53 83 51 83 / 0 10 30 10 Espanola........................ 58 91 56 91 / 0 10 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 61 85 58 85 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 88 56 88 / 0 10 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 91 65 91 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 93 62 93 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 95 61 95 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 93 64 93 / 0 10 5 0 Belen........................... 62 95 61 95 / 5 20 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 94 63 94 / 0 10 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 61 94 59 94 / 5 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 65 95 63 95 / 0 10 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 94 61 94 / 5 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 66 90 63 90 / 0 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 93 63 93 / 0 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 67 97 65 98 / 0 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 86 58 86 / 0 10 5 0 Tijeras......................... 61 87 58 87 / 0 20 5 0 Edgewood........................ 58 88 55 88 / 0 20 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 90 52 90 / 0 20 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 58 84 54 84 / 0 20 30 10 Mountainair..................... 58 88 56 89 / 0 10 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 87 57 87 / 0 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 66 90 63 91 / 0 10 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 61 82 58 83 / 0 30 5 10 Capulin......................... 56 86 53 86 / 0 10 10 10 Raton........................... 55 89 52 89 / 0 20 20 10 Springer........................ 55 90 54 90 / 0 10 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 56 86 53 86 / 0 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 65 95 62 94 / 0 20 5 10 Roy............................. 60 89 57 89 / 5 20 10 20 Conchas......................... 69 97 63 96 / 5 30 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 65 91 61 91 / 5 30 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 72 97 66 96 / 5 20 20 20 Clovis.......................... 69 94 65 93 / 10 40 20 30 Portales........................ 71 95 65 94 / 10 40 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 69 95 64 95 / 5 30 20 30 Roswell......................... 73 97 67 97 / 10 20 10 20 Picacho......................... 67 91 60 92 / 0 30 20 30 Elk............................. 64 89 58 90 / 5 20 5 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ101-104-105-109-123. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...52