396 FXUS65 KABQ 290518 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1118 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1107 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Strong winds and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread each day through Tuesday. - There will be a moderate risk of heat-induced illness for sensitive groups in eastern New Mexico today. - Isolated strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Gusty southwest winds are ongoing throughout central and northern NM this afternoon out ahead of a broad longwave trough currently located over The Great Basin. The SW/NE jet max at 700 mb will move from northwest to northeast NM overnight, creating gusty winds along the crest and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns overnight into the early morning hours. Winds should remain lighter below roughly 9500 feet, but gusts could approach 65 mph over the peaks. Southwest flow will continue to prevail over New Mexico on Monday, although winds will trend weaker as the aformentioned trough pulls northward. It will still be breezy areawide, with gusts generally in the 20 to 35 mph range. Temperatures will remain relatively unchanged on Monday, with highs generally within a few degrees of seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 A portion of The Great Basin trough will break off over California Monday night, pushing into the Mojave desert on Tuesday. An upper- level speed max will clip the Four Corners area, increasing winds over the high terrain of western NM. 700 mb winds from the LREF mean are in the 20 to 30 knot range so gusts upwards of 35 mph could mix down to the surface. It will not be as windy as this weekend, but still seasonably windy for the last day of June. The aformentioned jet streak will help to push Gulf moisture northward into east- central and northeast NM Tuesday afternoon. Isolated showers could develop as far east as Santa Rosa and as far north as Clayton and the uptick in shear could support an isolated severe storm or two. The dryline boundary will likely set up in the same area on Wednesday afternoon, with isolated storms in the far eastern portion of the state. The synoptic pattern will remain active over the western CONUS late week into the weekend, although the jet stream looks like it will stay north of New Mexico. That will translate to weaker winds, but warmer temperatures. Highs will climb into the 90s in most lower elevation areas late week, with temperatures near or above the 100 degree mark in the eastern plains. The late week time period has also trended drier given that the monsoon high will be slow to develop overhead. GEFS ensemble mean PWATs trend up to near normal over the weekend, rising slightly above normal early next week as easterly flow sets up over the southern half of the state. 500 mb heights on all ensemble means are showing a ridge setting up over the desert southwest early next week, but they vary significantly in the magnitude and exact location. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at TAF sites, although smoke from area wildfires may limit visibilities across far northern and far western NM early Monday morning. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will redevelop by mid day, but will generally be 5kts or more less than the previous two days. A few showers or storms may move in the vicinity of KROW Monday afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include in the TAF at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK... Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing throughout much of central and northern New Mexico this afternoon, with the strongest southwest winds focusing over the western and northern high terrain. There have been fewer fire starts than expected given all of the dry lightning last week, but the benefits of last week's moisture are diminishing as evidenced by increasing ERCs throughout the state. Winds will trend weaker in most areas Monday, except across the northeast where there will be several hours of critical fire weather conditions. Southwest flow will remain entrenched across the state through mid-week, with increasing winds on Tuesday. Near critical to critical conditions will focus over southwest and northeast NM so a Fire Weather Watch was issued for these areas on Tuesday. Gulf moisture will push northward into northeast NM on Tuesday, providing the energy for a few showers and storms along the dryline. If this moisture looks like it will push further northward, a Red Flag Warning may not be needed for Tuesday for the Northeast Plains. Winds trend weaker mid to late week as temperatures trend higher. The late week/weekend period has recently trended drier with only very low chances of rain in south-central and southeast NM. The monsoon high will attempt to set up over the desert southwest early next week, drawing more moisture into the state and increasing rain chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 83 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 53 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 48 85 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 52 86 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 54 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 54 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 51 87 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 55 91 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 45 76 45 78 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 61 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 55 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 44 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 41 76 39 78 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 54 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 54 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 57 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 95 59 95 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 63 96 62 96 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 93 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 60 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 63 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 61 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 60 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 59 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 89 54 89 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 56 85 56 84 / 0 0 5 10 Mountainair..................... 59 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 59 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 66 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 84 58 83 / 0 5 0 20 Capulin......................... 55 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 55 90 52 89 / 0 0 0 10 Springer........................ 57 92 54 91 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 59 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 65 95 64 93 / 0 0 0 20 Roy............................. 62 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 68 98 66 95 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 67 94 64 91 / 0 0 0 30 Tucumcari....................... 70 97 69 95 / 0 10 5 30 Clovis.......................... 69 94 66 91 / 0 20 10 40 Portales........................ 71 97 68 94 / 0 20 20 40 Fort Sumner..................... 69 96 68 94 / 0 10 0 40 Roswell......................... 72 97 70 94 / 0 20 0 40 Picacho......................... 67 92 64 90 / 0 10 0 40 Elk............................. 64 88 62 86 / 0 10 0 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-123. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-105-109-123. Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT Monday for NMZ213-215-227. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...11