696 FXUS65 KABQ 282028 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 108 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Record high temperatures are forecast for many locations daily through Monday, with the warmth peaking on Sunday. - Periodic Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions take shape from Sunday onward. - A more active pattern takes shape for the middle of next week onward, with breezy to windy conditions and at least some chances for rain and mountain snow. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 108 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 Unseasonably warm temps more typical of mid-May will take shape Sunday and Monday. A 590dm H5 high over the Baja today will drift east into northern MX thru Monday while a 556dm H5 low moves into northern CA and across the Great Basin. Daily airmass mixing is progged to rise between the 75th and 90th percentile for early March. This will assist well above normal temps with breezy to locally windy conditions across the region. The NBM 5.0 is now showing a near 70% probability of reaching 80F at KABQ Sunday and near 60% Monday. Roswell has a 30% chance of reaching 90F on Sunday and near 40% Monday. Periods of high cloud cover may be the limiting factor during this period. Near-record to record high temps over the region will be accompanied by west-southwest wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph Sunday and 25 to 35 mph Monday. These winds with low humidity will increase the risk for fire spread, especially over eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 108 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 Ridge top winds will increase Monday night as the upper level low crosses into UT. There is still some uncertainty with the track of the low into Tuesday. However, the overall result will remain very dry and breezy to windy conditions over NM (just how dry and windy remain the question). Temps will trend cooler over northwest NM with the approaching Pacific cold front while remaining very warm over eastern NM. Winds peak areawide Tuesday afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected, especially in the high terrain and northeast NM. A northwest wind shift in the wake of the Pacific front will usher in much cooler temps Tuesday night, but these readings are still 5 to 10F above normal. A brief cooldown Wednesday with lighter winds will give way to yet another trough passage north of NM Thursday. Warmer temps and more wind will occur with very low humidity once again. A backdoor cold front in the wake of this system may return eastern NM closer to normal for Thursday night after a brief period of breezy northerly winds. The next upper wave is on target to approach Friday with another round of wind for NM. This wave may be signaling the arrival of a pattern change across the western U.S. but confidence is still low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR all areas the next 24 hrs. Periodic wind gusts of 15-20KT will be common across the region today with above normal temps and deeper airmass mixing. Otherwise, cirrus will spread east today and thicken thru sunset before thinning again overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 108 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 Another prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather will take shape next week across parts of NM. A more progressive weather pattern will deliver near-record to record warm temps, strong west to northwest winds, minimum humidity values in the 7 to 12% range, and unseasonably deep atmospheric mixing. Overnight recoveries will be fair to good most nights except for a brief surge of low level moisture over eastern NM Sunday night and Monday morning (excellent recoveries and even some low clouds or fog). The main areas to watch next week are Las Vegas to Raton and Gallup to Grants Monday, then a larger of eastern NM Tuesday and Thursday. Fine fuels also remain susceptible to fire growth as evidenced by small wildfires spreading over eastern NM on days without critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for Monday but we will continue to monitor wind trends for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 67 27 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 34 69 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 28 72 30 71 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 36 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 74 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 73 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 39 71 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 33 80 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 37 83 39 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 29 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 42 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 30 59 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 25 62 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 29 68 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 35 69 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 36 75 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 42 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 39 72 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 78 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 79 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 82 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 36 81 38 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 42 79 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 36 81 38 83 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 37 81 40 83 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 45 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 43 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 43 75 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 40 75 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 75 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 38 71 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 43 75 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 41 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 47 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 45 73 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 32 69 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 30 73 30 72 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 30 76 30 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 36 73 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 38 70 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 37 73 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 35 82 35 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 39 80 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 38 82 36 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 41 83 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 39 85 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 84 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 45 88 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 45 84 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 42 85 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42