903 FXUS65 KABQ 300521 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1021 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 942 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025 - Low chance of winter driving conditions from snow in far southern Chaves County today. Forecast snowfall amounts have continued to trend lower. - Cold today before becoming warmer for the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026. - Rain and mountain peak snow chances for areas along and west of the central mountain chain New Year's Day through mid Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1236 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025 Snow showers have developed this morning in southern NM, with the southern border of the CWA serving as the northern edge of the main snowband. Model guidance from the past 12 hours shows that this main band has shifted further south, with the heaviest snow falling in Otero and Eddy counties. The Winter Storm Warning for SW Chaves County remains on track, but hazardous winter traveling is looking less likely for the Chaves County Plains and Lincoln Counties based on this recent trend. The 50th percentile snow amounts from the most recent HREF run have dropped to less than 1" in Ruidoso, with no snow in Roswell and around 6" near Dunken. As a result, the Winter Weather Advisories in Lincoln County have been expired given that hazardous winter travel is no longer expected. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in tact for Chaves County, given the potential for up to 2" south of Roswell if the snow band does manage to finally push into Lake Arthur and Dexter later this afternoon. Freezing fog will likely develop in the far southeast tonight after snow ends, although the lack of snowfall may limit its coverage. Confidence for fog is highest in the Pecos River Valley and Upper Tularosa Valley, with a low chance in SW mountain valleys as well. Some models are trying to bring patchy freezing fog as far north as I-40 along the Rio Grande Valley, but this seems very unlikely given how dry the airmass in place is. Temperatures will warm Tuesday as skies clear out, with high temps generally a couple to as much as 15 degrees above average, except in the far southeast where fog may not clear until late morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1236 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025 The warming trend continues into Wednesday as ridging shifts overhead. High level moisture will already be streaming in from the Pacific, with increasing high clouds through the day. A negatively tilted Pacific trough will eject inland into the desert southwest Wednesday night into Thursday, pushing a slug of Pacific moisture into western and central NM. 200-300 units of IVT will be enough to generate widespread showers, despite the lack of a strong forcing mechanism. PWATs will rise to upwards of 5 standard deviations above normal and we may once again break a record PWAT at KABQ. Since this airmass will be so warm and moist, snow levels will once again be seasonably high, with accumulating snow confined to areas above around 10,000 feet. Snow levels may drop to around 9,000 feet Friday morning as a front crosses the state, with only high mountain passes being impacted. 50th percentile QPF amounts are generally in the 0.05"-0.25" range across western and central areas for this time period, with 90th percentile amounts up to around 0.5" in the high elevations of the SW mountains and Chuskas. So, at the very least this moisture will be welcomed, even if it won't help much with the paltry snowpack that is sitting between 10% and 50% for most basins around central and northern New Mexico. Winds will tick upwards on Friday afternoon as a Pacific front creates gusty northwest winds along and east of the central mountain chain. A breeze will continue in these areas through the weekend as quasi-zonal flow persists over the region. Models have trended considerably drier for this weekend into early next week, with only low rain/high mountain snow chances in the northwest high terrain. Uncertainty of synoptic pattern over the western CONUS remains high early and mid-next week with a wide range of potential solutions && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 942 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025 VFR conditions with mostly light winds prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, with a couple of exceptions. A gusty northerly drainage wind is forecast to develop overnight at KSAF and continue through the morning hours Tuesday. KROW is forecast to deteriorate overnight to at least IFR, with potential for LIFR conditions in freezing fog early Tuesday morning. KROW is forecast to improve back to VFR during the mid morning hours Tuesday, with VFR conditions then prevailing areawide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Snow showers in far southeastern NM will taper off the next few hours. Ridging will build overhead Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in poor ventilation areawide. Winds will generally be light the next few days, with stronger west to northwest winds Thursday and Friday as a Pacific storm moves in from the southwest. Anomalous moisture will create rain and high mountain snow showers Thursday through Friday morning, with wetting rainfall favored over the high terrain of western NM. Quasi-zonal flow aloft with a light westerly breeze, dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and lower humidities are favored this weekend into the early portion of the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 21 46 22 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 13 51 16 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 17 50 20 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 11 52 15 56 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 20 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 13 54 17 59 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 20 55 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 24 50 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 22 51 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 19 60 25 64 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 23 62 29 66 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 16 47 20 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 26 49 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 21 54 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 21 48 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 17 43 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 8 49 9 52 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 12 51 15 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 20 57 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 17 55 20 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 25 51 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 21 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 29 51 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 24 52 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 21 53 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 25 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 18 52 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 24 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 18 53 19 57 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 23 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 20 52 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 27 51 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 25 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 24 53 25 58 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 24 49 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 24 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 20 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 13 53 17 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 20 50 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 21 51 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 21 52 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 24 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 25 52 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 17 54 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 14 56 20 60 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 13 56 18 60 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 19 57 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 21 58 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 17 54 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 18 58 21 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 17 60 24 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 19 59 22 64 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 21 55 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 19 56 20 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 16 56 20 64 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 19 50 22 60 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 21 56 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 20 56 27 64 / 10 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...11